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　　烟草在线据《每日电讯报》报道　　由于人们的新年决心中排在第一位的是戒烟，股票经纪人们已在考虑吸烟人数的下降对于烟草业的影响。

　　吸烟者人数自二十世纪六十年代就一直呈下降趋势，当时英国只有刚刚超过半数的成年人吸烟。由于人们越来越明白与吸烟相关的健康风险、加之禁烟令于2007年实施，吸烟者的比例2008年已下降至五分之一。

　　分析人士称：“所有发达国家吸烟者的比例都在下降。在大多数市场里，下降趋势基本是一条直线。如果这些趋势得以继续，那么至2050年，许多重要的烟草市场将面临无人吸烟的局面。”

　　不过，花旗集团强调指出，这些都还只是“非常长远的”趋势，并不能为现在就采取任何行动提供依据。提价将会继续使烟草公司的利润增加，一直至2020年。不过，它们也确实指出了另外一些更迫在眉睫的挑战，其中包括朴素包装的到来。英国卫生大臣安德鲁-兰斯里去年年底时称，政府正在考虑出售朴素包装的香烟的计划以防止儿童养成吸烟的习惯。

　　花旗集团的分析师称，他们认为，无商标包装可能出现在澳大利亚，而不太可能出现在欧洲。这对“吸烟率或者烟草业的利润不会产生很大影响。”分析师称：“我们不认为吸烟者受到了香烟包装的吸引，因为健康警告图片已使包装看上去令人反感。此外，许多药品是在没有经过品牌包装的情况下售出的。”

　　花旗集团已把它对帝国烟草公司、英美烟草、菲莫国际的评级从“买入”下调为“持有”，但强调指出其对烟草业的看法还没有转变为“特别熊市”。(新商盟网xinshangmeng.org)

Smoking could 'disappear' by 2050, says Citigroup

　　With quitting smoking on top of many a list of new year's resolutions, the broker has considered what a decline in smoking means for the tobacco industry.

　　The habit has been on the wane since the 1960s, when just over half of adults in Britain smoked. With people becoming more conscious of the health risks associated with smoking and the introduction of the smoking ban in 2007, that figure had dropped to a fifth by 2008.

　　"The percentage of smokers is declining across the developed world, and the declines are more or less in a straight line in most markets," said analysts.

　　"If these trends continue, then by 2050, many important tobacco markets will have gone to zero smoking."(新商盟网xinshangmeng.org)

　　But Citigroup stressed that these were "extremely long-term" trends and did not justify any action as yet, adding that pricing increases will continue to drive profit growth for tobacco companies until about 2020.

　　However, they did point to other more imminent challenges, including the advent of plain packaging.

　　Andrew Lansley, the Health Secretary, said late last year that the government was considering plans to sell cigarettes in plain packaging in an attempt to deter children from taking up the habit.

　　Citigroup analysts said they believed generic packaging was likely in Australia, but unlikely in Europe. They added that in their view, it would make "surprisingly little difference to smoking rates or profits".

　　"We don't believe smokers are attracted to smoking by the packs because graphic health warnings already make them look revolting. Furthermore plenty of drugs are bought without branded packaging," said the broker.(新商盟网xinshangmeng.org)

　　Citigroup downgraded their rating on Imperial Tobacco, British American Tobacco and Philip Morris International to "hold" from "buy". But stressed they were not turning "ultra-bearish" on the sector.

吸烟将在2050年前“消失”？